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How to Build a Bottom-Up Revenue Forecast - When the Forecast Cannot be Extrapolated from the Past by Barbara Hoisl, Virtual Strategy Officer, barbara hoisl / strategy & business planning


The revenue forecast is a critical part of the P&L-style financial model which is needed for profitability analysis and as a sanity check for the pricing model.
For new products, or when key elements of the product strategy or the market have changed, we cannot build a credible revenue forecast by extrapolating from the past. In these cases, the revenue forecast needs to be built “bottom-up”. 
The “bottom-up”-approach forecasts revenue based on planned sales and marketing activities, using assumptions such as success rates of sales people and average deal sizes, as well as conversion rate modeling for web-based sales.

Barbara Hoisl is a consultant and trainer, specializing in software-based business models and portfolio strategies. She supports fast-growing software and Internet businesses, as well as physical product vendors developing smart, connected products for the Internet of Things (IoT).
She draws on more than 25 years of direct, first-hand experience in the global software and Internet industry, including 14 years with HP. At HP, she worked in business planning, strategy and M&A for HP Software. 
During her career, Barbara acquired a deep understanding of growth and innovation models and of the business models that characterize the software and Internet industry. She shares this knowledge in her German-language reference book on strategies for vendors of IoT products: “Produkte digital-first denken: Wie Unternehmen software-basierte Produktinnovation erfolgreich gestalten”, Springer-Gabler 2018.
Barbara holds a master degree in Computer Science with a minor in Business Administration from Technical University of Kaiserslautern. 
Barbara is a fellow of the ISPMA (International Software Product Management Association) and partner at pd7.group, a leading provider of ISPMA-based certification training.
You find her at barbarahoisl.com, on LinkedIn and Xing.